Israel seems to be back in a political blockade.

After the count of nearly 90 per cent of the vote held Tuesday, it seems that neither the coalition of the current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, nor his main rival’s bloc, Gadi Eisencott, will be able to secure the necessary majority for forming the government.

To form the government, one of the main parties will likely be forced to violate the main promises made during the election campaign.

For this reason, new elections look like the most likely scenario. Below are four possible scenarios.

1. National Unity Government With Netanyah in Chief

The first possibility is for Netanyah to persuade Eisenkotin to join a government of national unity.

In this case, Eisenkot would have to give up his main political platform, having presented himself as the only alternative to Netanyah and had based the entire campaign on the promise to remove him from power.

Last night, at his election headquarters, Eisenkoti called on Netanyah to announce his retirement from political life.

He told those present that the Israelites are tired of the culture of lies, divisions, and inciting hatred of Netanyah.

However, that statement was made before the results of one of the main extles were corrected. Although the poll initially predicted the supremacy of the Eisenko bloc, Netanyah has already passed it, writes bc.

Netanyahu may try to involve Eisenkot’s Yashar party in a unity government with his party, Likud, but provided he gives up his far-right allies and ultraorthodox parties.

Last night, however, at Likud’s headquarters, Netanyah thanked his loyal partners and called for the formation of a strong right government. Many interpreted this message as a sign that he wants to preserve the current coalition.

A possible new escalation of the conflict with Iran could push forward the idea of a unity government, as it would create great pressure on political leaders to put aside differences and co-operate.

In pre-election days, Israeli and US media reported that Netanyah was engaged in new attacks on Iran and that he had pressured Donald Trump to approve US involvement.

Netanyah critics would no doubt interpret such an action as trying to save his political career by promoting a new regional conflict.

2. Eisenkot government with support from Arab parties

Such a scenario would bring profound changes to Israeli politics. So far, only an independent Arab party has been a formal part of a ruling coalition in 2021, but that alliance lasted a little.

Eisenkoti and almost all other Jewish parties in his bloc have already ruled out the possibility of forming a government with Arab parties. Despite that, it is currently the only scenario through which the opposition can reach the majority.

Arab parties are the biggest election surprise. According to projections, they have achieved better than expected results and could gain a record 19 mandate number.

The record turnout of Arab voters, who make up about a fifth of the population, has affected this result and are often identified as Palestinian citizens of Israel.

For years, many have boycotted the elections, arguing that voter turnout gives legitimacy to a system that treats them as second-hand citizens.

The situation changed radically with their participation in Tuesday’s vote, prompted by the desire to bring down the right-wing coalition in Israel’s history.

The United Arab List, which is expected to win about seven mandates, has declared it ready to join an opposition government. Meanwhile, the Joint List, which is envisioned by 12 mandates, has indicated it would support such a government by parliament, without necessarily being part of it.

However, the only Jewish political leader who currently supports this scenario is Yair Golan, from the Democrats.

Such a coalition would be extremely fragile, especially on issues related to the occupied Gaza and West Coast.

The Jewish parties’ common stance against the involvement of the ruling Arabs testifies once again to deep divisions in Israeli society.

3. Most of Netanyah through passage of deputies from opposition

The third possibility is that Netanyahu convinced right parties from the Eisenkot bloc to abandon their partners and join his coalition.

The two most likely candidates for such a transition are Naphtali Bennett, co-chairman of the Beyachad coalition, and Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party.

Both are right-wing politicians, with strong security positions, and share some political views with Netanyah.

During the campaign, however, both specifically demanded Netanyah’s departure, as well as the establishment of compulsory military service for ultraorthodox Jews.

This stance puts them directly at odds with the two ultraorthodox parties that are already part of the Netanyah government, making it difficult to imagine a co-operation between them.

Some analysts think the Bennett and Lieberman parties could replace Netanyah’s ultraorthodoc partners. However, according to current mandate estimates, such a grouping would probably not have enough seats to secure the majority.

4. New Choices

If none of the above scenarios are realised, the country will automatically go to new elections.

Many would consider such a result a silent victory for Netanyah. He would remain in office as prime minister in office until new elections, and would likely hope to achieve better results in them.

Some analysts believe the high turnout of Arab voters would not be repeated, especially if it turns out the record number of mandates won by them does not bring any political change.

At the same time, this could mobilise more rightist voters. Netanyah likely also estimates that some 70 thousand Israelites who traveled abroad to vote against him would not return to such a large number for repeated elections.

Furthermore, some rightist parties that did not pass the 3.25 per cent election threshold could get fewer votes or not run at all, which would be in favour of Likud and his allies.

Israel has held five sets of elections between 2019 and 2022, as Netanyah and his rivals failed to reach agreement on forming government. /Telegraphy/